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Happy about Hillary
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It’s no secret I’m not a Hillary fan. So it may surprise you when I say I was glad to see her defy the polls and beat Barack Obama in New Hampshire. Believe me: It’s not that I don’t want Obama to get the Democratic nomination: I think it’s a toss-up as to whether he or Hillary is the more beatable Dem.
Instead, I think the reason I was happy to see Hillary win was that it shocked everyone — including Hillary, whose own internal polling had shown her taking second in the Granite State. As Obama’s win was in Iowa, Hillary’s victory was a dash of drama in what has been a mind-numbing 13-month presidential slog. And I loved it that no matter how many pollsters and analysts said Obama had New Hampshire in the bag, voters did their own thinking, thank you very much.
I’m encouraged to see democracy in action, and I look forward to seeing what happens next. What was your take on the New Hampshire tally?
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One more diversion
It’s simple. Most of the independents who were expected to vote for Obama went over to vote for McCain. More traditional Dems voted with Clinton and Romney won with genuine registered Republicans.
Regardless of which primary the Independents choose to vote in, they always go for the most leftist candidate on the ticket. Obama is to Hillary’s left and he was the presumed choice of the independents. McCain (the anti-Republican) is to the left of Romney and the Independents went for McCain.
Republicans lean to the right and Democrats to the left. Independents normally help make up the far left and are much easier for the media to manipulate and turn toward the candidates that the media are trying to make into ’stars.’
Just my opinion.
It is always worse for the party itself in the long run when their primary is a dog fight. It may be close in both parties for a while now.
So far, the media is the winner (which tends to make those who want a reasonable issue-oriented race the losers so far). I got the feeling that Iowa and New Hampshire have been reduced down to nothing more than popularity contexts.
How do you figure that MCainis to the left of Romney, Joel?
I’ll agree with you, Lynn, that it is good to see democracy in action. One can only hope that this election will teach the media something — perhaps a little respect for the people. If nothing else, this election will be entertaining.
I confess I am wondering if Hillary is going to cry every time things get tough. How much mileage will the tears get her? I do think people will know when it’s genuine. Yes, it did make her seem more human. I actually saw a woman on tv who said she voted for her because she’s a woman. This bolsters my brother-in-law’s theory, but my sister and I keep telling him women aren’t that shallow. It seems the older women fell for the tears, or perhaps they were voting against the kid Obama.
Hillary didn’t beat Obama by much, so it ain’t over ’til its over. Obama is in NJ today at a friend’s alma mater. I saw on the news that he brought Dunkin Donuts to those waiting outside — Hillary did that yesterday. I don’t know if that’s a Democratic standard operating procedure. Our governor has already endorsed Hillary. Please take a hard look at NJ: we’re in deeply in debt, and she’s the woman he’s endorsing.
I, like many voters in N Hapshire just can’t stand to see a woman cry so she got the sympathy vote. The President of Iran or North Korea would have just dropped a nuke right in on her wet position
The best way I can think of it this morning is that there is a backing away from an emotional vote. Obama was running on a lot of pent-up desire for a new spirit in politics (see McCain, Straight Talk Express, or yesterday’s political Straight Talk thread), an authenticity if you will.
Here you can see the difficulties for some in the GOP — Romney, Guiliani and Thompson all look in varying ways “inauthentic.” For her part, Clinton also has had more than a whiff of this inauthenticity about her — that’s how the tearing up the other day looks like a strength and not a weakness. Edwards good looks also play into the inauthenticity side of things (see the YouTube “I Feel Pretty” video).
Authenticity has both an emotional ring and an intellectual side to it. The intellectual or experience side is the area where both Huckabee and Obama must work. For the latter, a successful intervention in Kenya (his father’s homeland) could be an important means for allaying some of these issues.
“One can only hope that this election will teach the media something — perhaps a little respect for the people.”
Please don’t hold your breath…
I think it would be even nicer if we finally had a reason to respect the media…
Well over 90 thousand votes went to Obama, less than 80 thousand to McCain. McCain just doesn’t have any money. Romney will definitely be the Republican nominee.
Hopefully Hillary loses to Obama. The single biggest reason I like Obama is because he has been pushing for a “national data base” of governement contracts open to the public.
This would let the American citizens know who sponsered what bill and what the money is going for. That would mean, no more secret bridges to nowhere. This one proposal, if passed, would be such a huge act of reform. No other candidate has even come close to suggesting such a concept. Time to get someone who is both smart and doesn’t have the “Viet Nam” legacy.
But of course, every says, “I don’t know what Obama stands for”.
Hey, the tears worked for me. I can’t stand to see a woman cry. And then to see that strident harridan reduced to tears just made me go “awwww”. She looked vulnerable and human rather than screaming and nuts.
I still wouldn’t vote for her.
#3, COYOTEBLUE,
The Republican candidate that leftists, Independents and Democrats have made it clear that they prefer is McCain. They like him even more than Giuliani who is pro-choice and friendly to homosexual activists and tends against the Second Amendment.
McCain is the only Republican running who has a record of sabotoging the appointments of conservative judges specifically to placate and please the left.
McCain’s immigration record and policies are to the far left of most Republicans.
McCain’s Campaign Finance Reform bill was downright unconstitutional and the right is universally outraged by it. It is very leftist, in my view, to believe that the legislators can stomp the consitituion underfoot for political gains.
McCain has not and would not stand up to Democrats on any issue except the war. McCain is good on the war, but would be a domestic disaster.
Thomas Sowell wrote; “[John McCain’s] track record in the Senate is full of the betrayals of Republican supporters that have been the party’s biggest failing over the years and its Achilles heel politically.”
Sowell continued, “McCain’s betrayals include not only the amnesty bill but also the McCain-Feingold bill that violated the First Amendment for the illusion of ‘taking money out of politics.’” [of course, it didn’t].
Sowell continues; “[McCain’s] back-door deal with Democrats on judicial nominations also pulled the rug out from under his party leaders in the Senate.”
McCain is the anti-Republican. That’s why so many Democrats and Independents crossed over to vote for him in New Hampshire, in both 2000 and in 2008.
The mainstream media have trained the public to hate Republicans with such irrational passion that McCain does have a good chance.
Hurray for a real race! I am glad the nominee is not yet chosen. I hope we actually get to the conventions before we know so that the two parties don’t start all the negative ads too soon.
Lynn is right - democracy at work, people making their choices. BUT it is still a long way to November. The media must hold off on the coronation.
#10 Joel Mark- as a McCain observer for all his political career here in Arizona (Yes I voted for him - but no longer)your points are right on about John-boy.
#7 Make it Man,
The most respect the media has ever had for their fellow man was when they all agreed, and taught in journalism schools, that it was best to write so an 8 year old could understand.
I’m not a political junkie so I may not remember this correctly, but hasn’t every elected president won the NH primary?
And Joel Mark, I’m an Independent and I never vote for the far left candidate. I admit, however, that sometimes I vote a spoiler vote–as long as I don’t have to violate my pro-life credentials. Which means sometimes I don’t vote at all.
Lynn: … I loved it that no matter how many pollsters and analysts said Obama had New Hampshire in the bag, voters did their own thinking, thank you very much.
Frank: Remember this, ye naysayers, the next time you assert that Ron Paul is “unelectable” because, well, he’s just not polling very well at all.
Make it Man (7): I think it would be even nicer if we finally had a reason to respect the media …
Frank: E.g., see Fox News’ rigged .. ahem, “exclsuionary” forum Sunday night. The media play a larger role than they care to admit in influencing public opinion about candidates, and then they report that public opinion as news. Can you say “self-fulfilling prophecy” boys and girls?
As John Stossel likes to say, “Gimme a break!”
Ah Frank, the enviable win-win situation of supporting a candidate like Paul. If he loses (like he continues to do), then you can claim that the media ganged up on him using exclusionary tactics, without which he would’ve taken the primary by a landslide. If he makes a respectable showing (as in Iowa), then the voters saw through all the media whitewash and voted their hearts. Same concept with the polls: if he gets more votes than the polls suggest, then the polls were flawed; if he gets the votes that the polls suggested, then people were influenced by the polls.
Paul is unelectable not because Fox News won’t let him in on the debates (surely a dumb move on FNC’s part), but because he’s not a statesman, he’s uncharismatic, he’s seen as fringe, and (call it Swift Boating if you want) he presided over an almost laughably racist publishing house for more than a decade. He’s an awful congressman who’s brought shame on his district here in Texas, and he’d be a disaster as a president. Thankfully, that’ll never be an issue.
Last night was exciting! I absolutely love to see the pundits stupefied and eating crow. That’s why they play the game, folks. Way to go Boise State!
Hillary’s welling up didn’t get her the sympathy vote, it got her the anger vote. Undecided and un-committed voters were torqued that a 10 second sound bite generated such extensive critical analysis from the media and sniping from her detractors. It triggered an “I’m mad as hell and not going to take this crap” backlash and invigorated the Clinton ground game in NH.
Michelle asked, “…hasn’t every elected president won the NH primary?”
No. McCain won New Hampshire in 2000 but George Bush won the nomination and then the election. Also, Pat Buchanan did well in New Hampshire some 20 years ago (first or second, I don’t recall).
Michelle, you point on being Independent and never voting far left is well taken. I was generalizing and you don’t fit that generalization, and you are probably not the only one.
NJLawyer - in a quarter century of election work, I have seen the “women’s vote” very clearly and substantially benefittting women candidates at lower levels of office.
There are more women than men.
Women register in higher perventages than men.
Women vote in higher percentages than men.
At lower levels of office, there is a very significant advantage to female candidates - the only question is whether that will apply to President too (I believe that it will, but to a somewhat lesser extent than state representative, county board, or lowest level of judge).
“I think it’s a toss-up as to whether he or Hillary is the more beatable Dem.”
Beatable by whom? Do the Republican’s have a nominee candidate that they are keeping a secret?
KRM:
The problem with that being a deciding factor in this election (my private speculation) is twofold: (1) Women already vote Democratic in large numbers. Enough women loathe Hillary that I doubt she’ll get extra votes from women. (2) Men and women both will also vote against her (in some numbers, large or small) because she’s a woman, and they simply cannot see her being strong enough to be Commander in Chief.
I think the best scenario for a woman to win would be a Republican woman (thought not original with me). She wouldn’t lose many votes of Republicans because of her sex, and the votes she lost would be more than made up by Democratic women crossing over. But since Democrats already have more of the female vote, my guess is that the advantage wouldn’t work that direction. Me personally, I’d rather never see a woman President. If a real Margaret Thatcher ran, I’d vote for her. But she’d have to be pro-life, and she’d have to be both feminine and strong, a tricky combination. (Elizabeth Dole comes to mind.)
One thing we should not forget. The Democratic Party has now given us two historic firsts. With victory in Iowa, Obama became the first African-American candidate to win a major-party caucus and now with New Hampshire Hillary has become the first female candidate ever to win a major-party primary.
One of them will be the Democratic nominee and in these times stands a very good chance of being president. I prefer the message of change and the soaring hopeful oratory of Obama. But I’m very proud to be a Democrat right now. Change is coming.
RobHays (17): Ah Frank, the enviable win-win situation of supporting a candidate like Paul. If he loses (like he continues to do), then you can claim that the media ganged up on him using exclusionary tactics, without which he would’ve taken the primary by a landslide … [blah blah blah].
Frank: Way to read way more into what I said than what I meant.
You don’t have to be a conspiracy peddler to admit that Fox News didn’t give their viewers a fair look at the field of viable candidates.
In an internet first, allow me to quote both Moe Howard and Lew Rockwell in the same breath:
“Listen, numbskull. I’ll explain it so that even you can undertand it.”
“It was great to see the pollsters with egg on their faces. It’s good to undermine these state-affiliated enterprises, since their fundamental purpose is to tell us what to think.”
Or, to put it in my own words:
The only poll that really matters is the one taken in the voting booth.
DCL: Didn’t a Republican President name the first black/first female Secretary of State in U.S. history?
Change is coming, no doubt (Bush can’t run again), but not in the direction you’re hoping.
DCLAWYER: The Democratic Party has now given us two historic firsts.
The Democrats go from strength to strength. Voters could support any of them in November. Meanwhile, the Republican candidates look diminished, flawed, and unacceptable the more that Republicans look at them.
TRAVIS: Hillary’s welling up didn’t get her the sympathy vote, it got her the anger vote.
Beutiful point. Hillary prepared the groundwork for the reaction by really tearing into Bush in the last couple of days like she never had before. Voters could ask themselves, “Where has she been? She’s really sticking up for us now!”
Hillary, if you stand up for us, we’ll have your back!
LYNN VINCENT: It’s no secret I’m not a Hillary fan.
Care to elaborate, Lynn? Anyone?
CherylD - I very freely noted that we have no real ability to predict how (or whether) this clearly present factor in lower offices will operate as to the office of President. I speculated that, at most, it will be a lesser effect than one see with lower offices - and with Hilary’s history and such, the “women tending to vote for women” factor may be more than overcome by Hilary-specifc matters.
It will be interesting nonetheless.
Two things struck me as I was watching the news this morning.
First: I have to agree with, I think, Night Train. I don’t think Obama will get elected, and not because he is black. I just don’t think the country is ready for a Barak Obama. Maybe if he had a plainer name like John, Lewis, Fred, etc.
Second: The media was all over themselves that their polls had shown Obama winning and then Hillary did. They had some sort of name for it. I thought to myself. If anyone called me and asked who I was voting for in some sort of poll, I would flat out lie to them. It isn’t their business. Also I know the amount of data collected. They would have my name, age, and phone number. They don’t have a right to know who I am voting for. Maybe I’m just ornery.
I’m still left with the feeling that it doesn’t matter what we say here at this point in time on either side. The pundits get it wrong, we get it wrong, and tomorrow there will be another surprise. If nothing else, this will be fun.
Llama wrote in No. 5: “I, like many voters in N Hapshire just can’t stand to see a woman cry so she got the sympathy vote. The President of Iran or North Korea would have just dropped a nuke right in on her wet position.”
For all the comments we make about those tears, whether you think they make Hillary more human or not, Lady Thatcher Mrs. Clinton is not.
Both Obama and Clinton got less than 40%. The Dems are just as fractured as the Repubs. We always refer back to history to make our predictions, but nothing is written in stone this time. This is not over.
Hillary has two things to commend her as President.
#1 She is a woman.
#2 She was married to a President.
Neither of these things show experience to predict success as President. We are hiring but Hillary has no experience.
Kim - “If anyone called me and asked who I was voting for in some sort of poll, I would flat out lie to them. It isn’t their business. Also I know the amount of data collected. They would have my name, age, and phone number. They don’t have a right to know who I am voting for. Maybe I’m just ornery.”
Right on, Kim! Heck, I regularly provide false information to pollsters, survey-takers, telemarketers, websites, etc. — anyone who wants more information from me than they have the right to know. It’s great fun to provide false info!
I hope you are serious Travis, because i am about to confess more. Sometimes I am 50 or 60 yrs olds sometimes I am only 20 and sometimes I am a black woman.
Kim and Travis,
Seems to me it would be much better to decline to answer the survey. You have that right, you know.
I forget, Kim, are you a Christian?
Yes but I insist on my right to privacy and who I vote for is my business not a pollsters.
NJ Lawyer, I disagree with your assessment of the Democratic Party. We are not just as fractured as the GOP. We are united on issues and have to contend with who to choose among two candidate who each have personal strengths and represent historic change in America.
The GOP, on the other hand, is deciding between McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Paul, who each represent very different political and cultural factions within your party.
CherylD - I am a Christian, and I feel that I have a duty to lie to pollsters (just as I would have a duty to lie to other evldoers to try to undermine their evil endeavor).
I still say the left will run a Hillary/Obama ticket if Obama doesn’t beat her outright for the nomination and doesn’t beat her up too bad during the primaries.
That ticket will be harder to beat than either running without the other but still beatable none the less.
Right on, Kim! Heck, I regularly provide false information to pollsters, survey-takers, telemarketers, websites, etc.
Including those of us on this blog, who I’m guessing you lie to all the time about who you really are and what you really do.
It takes me hours in the morning to don my WMB personna. It’s not easy.
It’s not easy. And I couldn’t do it if I just didn’t passionately believe it was the right thing to do. I have so many opportunities for this blog. I just don’t want to see us fall backwards.
You know, this is very personal for me. I see what’s happening.
Some of us put ourselves out there and do this against some pretty difficult odds. And we do it, each one of us, because we care.
Some of us are right and some of us are wrong. Some of us are ready and some of us are not. Some of us know what we will do on day one, and some of us haven’t really thought that through enough.
. . .no matter how many pollsters and analysts said Obama had New Hampshire in the bag, voters did their own thinking. . .
If voting for Hillary is the result of thinking, let them vote without thinking!
Actually, it’s probably good that she won, as a protracted battle between them will give more exposure to their ideas (and lack thereof) which should be good for the GOP candidate.
I can’t vote for Hillary. I think that she’s a very wicked, evil person who literally got away with multiple felonies over the years, and would be TERRIBLE for my beloved country; worse than her felon-husband.
Further, I’m sickened that the American public would even pay her notice after all of the despicable things that she has pulled in the past. It’s shameful.
Finally, Hillary is a Democrat; a member of a political party that advocates for the killing-at-will of children, appeasement of tyrants, and socialism.
Sorry, I can’t vote for Hillary (or any Democrat,for that matter). If I were to, I wouldn’t be able to look my children in the eyes and justify it.
#41
Now that’s funny!
“I have so many opportunities for this blog.”
The right thing to say would have been
“we have so many opportunities as a blog”
I mean, really.
That’s almost as bad as your commercial that showed you giving us blog-people all of those wonderful social programs for Christmas.
#25: Didn’t a Republican President name the first black/first female Secretary of State in U.S. history?
And look how he misused them both terribly. Powel has publicly stated he is embarrassed by the things he was asked to say at the UN and feels he decieved America. Bush and Powel no longer speak to each other.
Bush has been a plague on this country. The sooner he is out, the better.
I was referring to Condi Rice, RDean. Powell was a Secretary of Defense, if I remember correctly (and he wasn’t female, to my knowledge).
KRM,
Pollsters are evildoers but liars aren’t? Whatever.